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The Housing Market Is Correcting in Canada

Photo by Robert Linder

Photo by Robert Linder on Unsplash

There is no need to be concerned about the cooling housing market.

Despite the recent softening in Canada's largest housing markets, national home prices have seen massive gains in the last 24 months. According to a new analysis, the cost of housing has risen 38 percent above the trend in Q1, the largest deviation in 40 years.

This expansion can be attributed to excess buyer demand and market psychology rather than supply-and-demand imbalance fundamentals. While Toronto prices rose 41 percent during the time period, exurbs (one to two hours drive outside of the city) rose more than 70 percent. Similar surges have been observed in cottage country.

The Bank of Canada has turned up, and the industry has begun to soften strongly in certain areas, so when we talk about a housing correction, we're talking about where, how much, and for how long. More housing price declines are anticipated, as are interest rate hikes, with another 125 basis point increase expected by the end of the year. That effectively means that the market will shift from being priced at 1.5 percent mortgage rates to somewhere in the 3.75 percent-to-4.5 percent range, depending on how bond yields evolve.

Fortunately, the bank's base-case scenario predicts a rebound within a five-year horizon. Localized price corrections in Canada typically take 2-to-3 years to bottom out and 4-to-5 years to fully recover, according to history.

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